潮汕地区穷得让人难以置信
2017年
然而潮汕地区本来不应该穷<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>恰恰相反<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>它本来应该是代表型的富裕地区才对<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>汕头是中国最早的开放区<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>早在清代末期就是通商口岸<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>1981年刚刚开始改革开放<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>汕头就被确定为经济特区<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>走在了改革开放的前端<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>这算是天时<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>汕头港是广东难得的深水港<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>拥有万吨级的泊位18个<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>潮汕地区有铁路<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>有机场<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>在交通方面无论如何都谈不上封闭<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>这算是地利<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>更关键的是<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>潮汕地区自古以来就有经商和出海的传统<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>对中国的大陆文明国家来说<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>潮汕地区说得上是为数不多的海洋文明地区<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>即便最普通的潮汕人都能谈几句生意经<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>因此潮汕籍的富豪遍布天下<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>李嘉诚先生就是其中的杰出代表<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>这算是人和<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>然而<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>就这样一个集天时地利人和于一体的潮汕地区<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>却活生生的将自己发展成为了广东的贫困地区<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>在这背后<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>到底有着什么样的原因<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>？</h-inner></h-char></span>
潮汕四市在古代统属于潮州府<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>新中国建国后<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>潮汕地区的行政管理体制几经波折<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>改革开放前大致上是以大汕头地区统管今天的潮汕四市<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>1983年汕尾地区被分割出来<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>单独建市<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>再到1991年<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>又分割出潮州与揭阳<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>最后汕头市面积变成潮汕四市中最小的一个<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>仅2064平方公里<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>而其它三市的面积分别为<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>：</h-inner></h-char></span>潮州3614平方公里<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>、</h-inner></h-char></span>揭阳5240平方公里<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>、</h-inner></h-char></span>汕尾5271平方公里<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>如此四分潮汕的结果<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>就是潮汕变得群龙无首<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>并且再也不可能进行统一的产业规划<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>面积最小的汕头固然一直是潮汕地区的带头大哥自居<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>总希望自己能够占据所有产业链的龙头<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>揭阳地区还好一点<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>对汕头还算有些向心力的意思<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>揭阳人也挺愿意去汕头买套房定居<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>潮州和汕尾那边对汕头根本就是不屑一顾<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>不要说统一的产业的规划了<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>连条路都不愿意痛痛快快的跟汕头拉通<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>两地之间的断头路比比皆是<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>四分潮汕<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>算是给潮汕地区的落后埋下了伏笔<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>
在这里必须说明的是<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>：</h-inner></h-char></span>一直到2000年<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>潮汕地区的发展并不落后<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>恰恰相反<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>在本世纪之前<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>潮汕经济还很过得去<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>以汕头为例<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>1991年<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>汕头的工业总产值107亿<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>对比当时全广东2524亿的工业总产值<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>占比4.2%<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>到2000年<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>汕头工业总产值占全广东的比值提升到了4.8%<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-end"><h-inner>（</h-inner></h-char></span>814亿/16904亿<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>）</h-inner></h-char><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>当时的汕头在产业布局上并没有任何的落后迹象<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>它算是全国最大的音像制品生产中心<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>比如说<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>2000年全国生产了297亿米的磁带<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>而汕头生产了125亿米<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>占全国的比值高达42.0%<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>并且<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>当时汕头的工业门类非常齐全<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>通信电缆和电话<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>、</h-inner></h-char></span>半导体电器以及配套零部件<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>都干得有声有色<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>
必须注意的是<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>当时的汕头并不以出口为产业导向<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>对外商投资也没有依赖<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>2000年汕头出口规模仅26亿美元<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>折约215亿人民币<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>占工业总产值的比值仅26.4%<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>2000年汕头外资工业企业<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-end"><h-inner>（</h-inner></h-char></span>含港澳台企业<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>）</h-inner></h-char></span>总产值仅134亿<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>占总产值的比值仅16.5%<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>
然而2001年我大中国加入世贸<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>全中国的经济发展模式为之一变<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>：</h-inner></h-char></span>出口型经济模式成为了最强大的经济发展模式<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>吸纳外商投资成为了促进经济发展最强劲的动力源<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>珠三角地区经济在此之后突飞猛进<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>然而到了这个时候<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>四分潮汕的问题开始发作了<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>：</h-inner></h-char></span>潮汕地区已经无法再针对现实的情况做出城市经营策略上的改变了<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>表现在数据上<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>2005年汕头工业总产值占广东省的比值下降到3.1%<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-end"><h-inner>（</h-inner></h-char></span>1285亿/41662亿<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>）</h-inner></h-char><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>2010年下降到2.8%<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-end"><h-inner>（</h-inner></h-char></span>2652亿/93463亿<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>）</h-inner></h-char><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>此后就稳定在这个2.8%附近<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>2015年的数据为3883亿/135308亿=2.86%<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>与2000年时期相比<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>汕头市的工业产值占全省的比值下降了足足2个百分点<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>
今时今日潮汕地区已经没有代表性产业可言了<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>外资企业一如既往的没有进入潮汕地区<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>汕头2017年外资企业总产值490亿<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>占当年度汕头全部工业总产值4606亿的比值仅为10.6%<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>而这个时候全广东的外资企业产值占比为38.1%<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-end"><h-inner>（</h-inner></h-char></span>51664亿/135722亿<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>）</h-inner></h-char><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>这种鲜明的对比<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>也就是汕头经济发展不起来的核心原因<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>：</h-inner></h-char></span>一线沿海的潮汕地区<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>恰恰就没有将外向型经济发展起来<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>2017年的汕头已经没有代表型产业了<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>音像产业已经整体消亡<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>剩下可以拿来一提的只有一些最基础的服装和玩具代工了<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>这些东西没有利润可言<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>挣的就是辛苦钱<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>然而更可怜的事情在于<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>潮汕地区还没有外来民工可供剥削<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>在这些最吃出的代工企业里工作的<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>都是潮汕本地的平民百姓<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>他们挣着最低廉的薪水<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>干着最基础的工业<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>不知道未来的希望何在<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>
然而奇怪的事情在于<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>虽然潮汕地区的产业经济一塌糊涂<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>但是它的消费并不显得弱<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>2017年汕头社会消费品零售总额1683亿<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>对比其561万常住人口<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>人均年消费额3万元<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-end"><h-inner>（</h-inner></h-char></span>恰好整除<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>好神奇<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>）</h-inner></h-char><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>虽然这个数据依然低于全省人均3.4万的年消费额<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>但却显著高于当年度汕头2.72万的人均可支配收入<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>汕头居民的全部收入拿来消费都不够支撑这样的消费市场数据<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>考虑到汕头毫无外向型经济特征<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>并没有多少外来消费力<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>所以<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>要么就是汕头统计部门瞎编了一个消费数据<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>要么就是汕头人民另有台底下的黑色或者灰色产业<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>我估摸着或许这与传说中的汕头走私有关<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>毕竟走私行业以及相应收入是上不了台面也进入不了统计的<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>
但是<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>走私毕竟不能造福于大众<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>它始终都是一个小众产业<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>不可能造福大众<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>并且<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>最关键的是<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>一旦一个地区沉溺于走私不可自拔<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>将偷鸡摸狗视为区域文化和产业上的骄傲<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>那么<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>这个地区将会越来越走向封闭和落后<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>越来越贫困<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>越来越缺乏核心产业支撑<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>所以<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>在继续走地下经济之路<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>还是从地面之下爬出来<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>走出一条光明正大的产业之路<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>，</h-inner></h-char></span>这将是摆在新一代潮汕居民面前的重大抉择<span class="bd-box"><h-char class="bd bd-beg"><h-inner>。</h-inner></h-char></span>